Back in January, we published a blog post forecasting the top trends that would shape the housing market in 2025. Now that we’re halfway through the year, it’s time to ask: how accurate were those predictions—and more importantly, what does that mean for Boston-area buyers and sellers heading into the second half of 2025?
We reviewed the latest data from Realtor.com, GBAR, MLS, Rocket Homes, and other trusted sources. Here’s how our original outlook stacks up against what’s actually happening on the ground.
Prediction #1: Inventory Would Finally Rise—Especially in Tight Markets Like Boston
What we said: More homeowners would list, easing the inventory crunch and boosting options for buyers.
What happened:
We were spot on. Nationally, inventory is up over 30% year-over-year, according to Realtor.com. And in Greater Boston? Inventory has soared:
- +42% in single-family homes
- +37% in condos (April YOY, GBREB)
Verdict: On target
Prediction #2: Home Sales Would Rebound Modestly With Lower Rates
What we said: With rates easing, we expected sales to rise slightly as more homeowners let go of their low-rate mortgages and re-enter the market.
What happened:
Nationally, home sales are still sluggish, with pending sales slightly down year-over-year. But Boston is telling a different story:
- Single-family sales in May rose 6.4%
- Condo sales were up just under 1%
Verdict: Mixed (Nationally slow, Boston modestly stronger)
Prediction #3: Home Prices Would Continue Rising—but at a Softer Pace
What we said: Prices would still climb, but more gradually than in recent years.
What happened:
- Boston-area prices have increased modestly year-over-year:
- Single-family median sale price in May: $980,000 (+3.2%)
- Condo median sale price in May: $749,500 (+4.8%)
Meanwhile, national home prices have barely budged, with year-over-year list price changes hovering around 0–0.2%.
Verdict: Nailed it
Prediction #4: The Market Would Rebalance—Buyers Gaining More Leverage
What we said: As inventory rises and days on market grow, buyers would have more room to negotiate.
What happened:
Across the U.S., sellers are adjusting expectations:
- 20.7% of listings had price reductions in June (Realtor.com)
- Homes are sitting 5–6 days longer than last year
- In Boston, the story is more balanced. Days on market remain relatively normal, and homes are still selling at healthy list-to-sale ratios. It’s not quite a buyer’s market—but it’s not hyper-competitive either.
Prediction #5: Boston Would Remain One of the Hottest U.S. Markets
What we said: Strong job growth, education anchors, and relative affordability would keep Boston attractive.
What happened:
- Multiple sources—including NAR and Barron’s—rank Boston among the Top 10 hottest housing markets in the U.S. for 2025. The market remains competitive, especially in neighborhoods with limited inventory or turnkey listings.
Verdict: Confirmed
So, How Did We Do?
Inventory growth: Accurate
Sales rebound: Mixed
Price appreciation (moderate): On point
Buyer leverage increasing: Partially
Boston’s market strength continues: Verified
What This Means for You
Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing in Boston real estate this fall, here’s what to keep in mind:
Buyers: More inventory means more choice. If you were frustrated by bidding wars in 2023–2024, this may be your moment—especially before rates drop again.
Sellers: Well-prepped and well-priced homes are still moving quickly. But pricing strategy matters more than ever.
Investors: Appreciation remains steady, and rental demand is holding strong. The window for buying before price growth accelerates again may be limited.
Let’s Talk Strategy
If you’re wondering how these trends affect your specific goals, let’s connect. We’re local experts, active investors, and straight shooters when it comes to helping you buy, sell, or build wealth through real estate.
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We’ll help you make the second half of 2025 count.